Good news for farmers as IMP predicts normal monsoon in India
19 April, 2017, 02:03 | Author: Glen Fletcher
IMD's projection of a "normal" monsoon this year also, will help RBI and government in managing inflation and boosting growth prospects at a time when the investment scenario is failing to improve.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
Last year, the IMD had made an initial forecast of "above normal" rainfall, but it belied its prediction and ended the seasons with normal precipitation.
A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 per cent above normal.
"There would be good distribution of rain across the country and the rainfall will be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average, " Director General of IMD KJ Ramesh said here at press conference, held to announce first stage forecast of southwest monsoon for 2017.
"With a 38 per cent probability of normal rainfalls, we believe rainfall is most likely to be higher than 96 per cent of LPA", the report said. The long period average refers to a 50-year average of 89 cm rainfall for the entire four-month season beginning June.
India will have good distribution of rainfall this year, Ramesh said.
Its principal economist Aditi Nayar said if rainfall is around 96 per cent, our baseline expectation is that growth of agricultural GVA will moderate from above 4 per cent in fiscal 2017 to 3.6 per cent in fiscal 2018. Rains were below normal in around 100 districts of the country while parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka suffered a drought-like situation, also because of winter monsoon being below normal.
The Pacific sea surface temperatures determine the so-called El Nino phenomenon - a slight increase in the sea surface temperatures - that has been linked to poor monsoon behaviour in India. The turnaround followed two consecutive drought years of 2015 (14% deficit rainfall) and 2014 (12% deficit). The IMD, however, said a weak El Niño could emerge only towards the latter part of the year.
El Nino- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- is being attributed as one of the main reasons behind a possibly weak monsoon this year.
However, a similar phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, called the Indian Ocean Dipole, is now in a favourable condition.
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